Realtorsmortgage

In previous decades people with high risk mortgage loans often left financial companies holding the keys when rates started to go up.

But according to a recent study by First American Real Estate Solutions, even if rates do start to climb this year, the number of defaults this time around is not likely to go much higher than $110 billion.

The study estimated 1.4 million of 7.7 million adjustable rate mortgages sold in 2004 and 2005 would be at risk of default. But even if that many households were to default, the financial fallout would be limited.

The reason: the US economy is so strong this time around, and so diversified that this amount represents only about one percent of total national homeowners’ equity, and it would be spread out over two or three years. So the economy would be more than able to absorb the losses.

**Factors driving continued Real Estate boom

While many real estate experts predict a slight slowdown in real estate and mortgage activity during 2006, most also see steady gains, with continued economic growth and well-balanced supply/demand ratio in the housing market.

Some of the factors driving the real estate market:

+ Continued low interest rates – Although rates climbed slightly in 2005, they are still at historic lows. Homes that were purchased over the last few years with interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages will enter the refinancing market. Homeowners will refinance to take advantage of increased equity values, and to convert to fixed-rate mortgages as rates start to climb.

+ Internet Effect – The internet gives buyers the opportunity to search MLS listings without going through an agent or broker. Not only have consumers become better informed and better educated about opportunities, but the entire home-buying process now takes less time than just four or five years ago. This trend will continue to accelerate.

+ Healthy economy leads to more relocation – A vibrant economy and strong residential real estate activity drives commercial activity as well. And that usually leads to corporate relocations as people follow business and employment opportunities. That means increased real estate activity.

+ Generation X effect – As baby boomers begin retiring and moving out of the real estate buy and sell cycle, Generation Xers have taken their place with a vengeance. The incomes of Gen Xers are generally higher than the previous generation, and financing is easier to get, so they have been able to buy more expensive homes sooner than boomers did. Gen Xers now make up 47% of the total homeownership segment in the U.S., and have an especially large impact on downtown and suburban communities.

**Many UK mortgages not covered by life insurance

A recent report by Sainsbury’s Bank estimates that as many as 4.2 million people in the UK have mortgages that are not covered by life insurance. That means that as much as GBP217 billion worth of mortgages are open to be passed on to loved ones. This number has grown significantly over the last few years as the number of new mortgage approvals has grown.

Of course inheriting the debt associated with a property would be accompanied by ownership of the property itself. And with current prices on the rise, most people, even if forced to sell a property because they could not pay the mortgage, would not be as badly off as the report might suggest.

**UK borrowers opt for 2 year fixed mortgages

According to a recent survey of mortgage purchases in the UK, there was a significant shift in January towards 2 year fixed mortgages. In January 39 percent of borrowers chose this option compared to 27 per cent in December.

Interestingly enough, only 9 percent of buyers opted for a longer term fixed mortgage in January, compared to 16 percent in December. This was in spite of longer term mortgages (up to 10 years fixed rate) at less than 5 percent.

The popularity of a 2 year fixed mortgages suggests that buyers assume rates have bottomed out, at least in the medium term, but are not convinced they may not go down further two or three years from now.

Recent statistics from the Department for Constitutional Affairs state that court actions by mortgage lenders rose to 28,476 in the second quarter of this year for those that dont follow such trends thats up over 50% on one year ago. Also, at 18,330, the number of repossession orders was the highest for 9 years.

Although yet to reach the previous peak of around 40,000 repossessions in the second half of 1991, this is a very worrying trend for homeowners and landlords alike, who have got used to permanently rising prices and historically low interest rates and borrowed against ever increasing equity either to fund a higher quality lifestyle or to pay the deposits on further investment properties.

The massive house price inflation over the recent years gives lie to Gordon Browns boasts about his low inflation economy. However the mock shock horror at the antics of yet another lying politician is of no importance. What is VERY important is the fact that it is consumer borrowing against this property price inflation that has kept the economy afloat. With house price inflation slowing, stopping, or going into reverse (depending on whose statistics you believe), people have nothing left to borrow against and are reaching their limits. Combined with the UKs near total de-industrialisation and reliance on the service sector (which has little or no export value), this is going to have a serious negative effect on the economy in the near future.

So what does that mean for you the landlord? A sudden large-scale collapse in prices – as seen in the early nineties – seems unlikely to this author because there are still more people in need of housing than there are suitable and available properties; simple supply and demand economics – people will still need property to rent.

However if the economy takes a severe downturn, aside from other problems too complex to cover here, then a lot more peoples rent will have to be met by the government. As well as the obvious strain on the taxpayer, this is quite obviously bad news for those private landlords who refuse to take tenants who are claiming housing benefit. If you think about it, Housing Benefit is better than free property advertising in that there are a constant stream of takers and the cheques definitely do not bounce!

Those negative landlords are, as in every business, the ones that will find themselves being left behind the proactive landlords who have already opened their minds and embraced the income stream generated by tenants on Housing Benefit. Although there may be problems at the moment, the council is working very hard to overcome them and make the service all that it should be.